Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model with Application to Crude Oil Production in Nigeria

In the last two years price of oil and its fluctuations have reached levels never recorded in history international markets. The determinants past, current, future been subject analysis by academics energy experts, given relevance crude worldwide economy. paper, therefore, model forecast production (2002-2022) sourced from Central Bank Nigeria website. successive least squares estimation diagnostics are applied. results affirmed that self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR(2,2,1)) outperformed integrated moving average (ARIMA(3,1,3)) for based on our (AIC, SC, SSR log-likelihood ratio). obtained will greatly assist government policy makers planning economic development since long-run success any country is closely related to how well management able foresee develop appropriate strategies.